# Brazil Are the AI Model's Fourth Favourites for the 2026 Hexa

**An independent 20,000-tournament simulation gives the Seleção an 8.4% probability of lifting their sixth World Cup, behind only Argentina, Spain and France.**

LONDON, 4 May 2026 – Thirty-seven days before the Estadio Azteca opens the 2026 World Cup, an open-source predictive model published at worldcupglobal.com places **Brazil as the fourth-most-likely champion** of all 48 qualified teams.

The model – based on 20,000 full Monte Carlo tournament simulations – projects Brazil to:

- Reach the semi-finals in **26.8%** of simulations
- Reach the final in **15.1%**
- Win the title in **8.4%**

That places the Seleção behind defending champions Argentina (15.9%), Spain (11.9%) and France (10.1%) – but ahead of England (7.7%), Portugal (6.5%) and Germany (6.0%).

> *"Brazil enter the tournament with the fifth-highest Elo rating in the field, a manageable group, and the kind of historic consistency that the model implicitly rewards. What costs them in the simulations is the bracket – they're often on Argentina's side, and Argentina edge them in a tight semi-final more often than not."*

## Group C and the path to MetLife

The model projects Brazil to **win Group C** ahead of Morocco (the 2022 semi-finalists), Scotland and World Cup debutants Haiti. The Seleção open against Morocco at MetLife Stadium on June 13, then travel to Atlanta and Houston for matchdays two and three.

| Round | Probability |
|---|---|
| Round of 16 | 87% |
| Quarter-final | 60% |
| **Semi-final** | **26.8%** |
| Final | 15.1% |
| Champion | **8.4%** |

In the most common simulation outcome, Brazil reach the semi-finals and meet either Argentina or Spain – and only about one in four times do they progress to the final.

## The Hexa attempt

Brazil last won the World Cup in 2002 – the "Penta". Twenty-four years later, the Seleção try for **the Hexa** with a generation now led by Vinícius Jr., Rodrygo, Endrick and Estêvão in attack, with Bruno Guimarães and Casemiro anchoring midfield. The model assigns no narrative value to history. But Brazil enter with the fifth-highest Elo rating (2,024) and project as a clear top-five team.

## Why 8.4% and not higher

Three reasons in the model's logic:

1. **Bracket asymmetry.** Spain and France have similar Elo ratings and similar champion probability, but they're scheduled into halves of the bracket where the toughest opponent at the semi-final stage is still beatable. Brazil more often face Argentina there.
2. **No host advantage.** Argentina, by virtue of starting in the south of the Americas region, projects a marginal travel benefit relative to most European challengers. Brazil shares some of that, but receives no implicit bonus.
3. **Variance ceiling.** The model's Poisson scoring distribution naturally caps how dominant any team can look across 20,000 simulations. Even the best team wins less than one in five tournaments.

## The projected final

The model's most-likely final at MetLife on July 19: **Argentina v France, 1-0 to Argentina** in regulation. For Brazil to win the trophy, that pattern must break – which the simulations say happens in roughly one tournament in twelve.

## Below the favourites

The model lists **England (7.7%), Portugal (6.5%), Germany (6.0%) and Netherlands (5.6%)** as serious European challengers. **Belgium (4.6%) and Croatia (2.6%)** complete the top ten. **Italy** are absent for a third consecutive tournament after losing the European playoff to Bosnia & Herzegovina.

## Reproducibility

worldcupglobal.com publishes the full simulation code, Elo ratings and per-match probabilities. A live model-accuracy tracker goes live when the group stage opens on June 11.

---

**About worldcupglobal.com:** Independent fan hub for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, available in 25 languages with full schedule, all 48 teams, broadcast partners by market, and prediction tools.

**Press contact:** press@worldcupglobal.com